5 takes: the sequence Smoltz hated
Plus, Atlanta's Game 3 decision, Eovaldi's right-right split, and Joe Kelly's soft spot
I did one of these back in April, and because there’s so much playoff action to pick from this week, I thought I’d run back a “5 takes” format again.
I’ll start with last night’s Texas-Baltimore game:
1. How to attack a blind spot
Nathan Eovaldi was on point last night with his full mix, but especially his split. Changeups and splits are typically platoon-evening pitches. If Eovaldi were like most right-handed pitchers, he would work primarily with a fastball/curveball mix to right-handed hitters and a fastball/cutter/split mix to left-handed hitters.
But Eovaldi is not like most right-handed pitchers. His split is a weapon against right-handed hitters, too. That’s because he’s got a unicorn-like ability to drop it in the perfect spot:
This pitch - the same-handed changeup/split thrown ‘in’ and off the plate - is a very tough one to execute. The risk level is high (see Kremer, above), but it also happens to be where the most value is for pitchers. When a hitter sees this pitch out of the hand, it looks like a hittable fastball.
Eovaldi threw 13 splits to right-handed hitters last night. Five looked exactly like that one above, and another four were pretty close. Seven of the 13 resulted in whiffs. If the Astros advance, I’d feel pretty good about having him face a lineup that can skew right-handed.
2. Curveball, changeup
Speaking of changeups - you could argue that the pivotal moment in Dean Kremer’s outing against Texas last night was this sequence. The situation: 1-0 Texas, 2nd inning. Kremer had just intentionally walked Corey Seager to load the bases for Mitch Garver. Here’s the first pitch to Garver:
A 79 mph get-me-over curveball for strike one. Kremer follows with this changeup:
John Smoltz did not like this sequence. Not at all. He thought Kremer did Garver a favor by “staying slow” (my words, not his) and serving up a changeup after slowing him down with the curveball.
I think this combination is the most controversial two-pitch sequence out there. It’s new-school vs. old-school. There are old-school baseball people who disagree with Smoltz, though. The argument in favor: because hitters have been conditioned for decades (by pitchers like Smoltz) to see something hard after a curveball, the changeup is the perfect pitch - it looks like a fastball out of the hand, but isn’t.
There is evidence in favor of the curveball-changeup sequence (though it would take a hours of work and another post to walk through it). For now, consider the fact that other playoff teams have used it this week. Framber Valdez used it four times in his start against Minnesota. Pablo López, Zac Gallen, and Max Fried also used it this week.
Instead of pointing fingers at Baltimore’s pitch selection, I’d focus on the poor execution of the pitch. Kremer threw a flat, middle-middle changeup, and the game broke open because of it.
3. Joe Kelly needs a clean inning
Check out this 88 mph breaking ball Joe Kelly threw on Monday night:
The hesitation move on this pitch is particularly impressive for a few reasons:
1) The pitch type. It’s much more common to see this kind of hesitation move with fastballs than with breaking balls and changeups.
2) The velocity. A breaking ball thrown this hard and with this much movement is more likely to come from a max-effort delivery than one that includes a complete stop and restart.
2) The novelty. This is the only pitch (breaking ball or otherwise) Kelly threw with this exact timing. He used the triple-leg lift again, but each variation included a slightly different hold.
Kelly’s timing games aren’t new, and they appear to be the product of paranoia. Kelly:
“With good teams right now who know how to pick pitches and if you’re tipping, the way to stop tipping is to get good at it or do something different every time. I’m taking the other route. I’m doing something different every time so you physically cannot tip...That’s just given me confidence to throw my pitches over the plate with hitters not knowing what’s coming.”
So Kelly started the hesitation game to disguise his pitch mix. But, after a little while, he also realized that it makes hitters really uncomfortable. Kelly already threw hard, but his unpredictable release timing makes his mix look even harder.
Consider this ridiculous 100 mph heater to Geraldo Perdomo Monday night:
Perdomo doesn’t have a huge timing mechanism (like a big leg kick). But he does use a toe tap that he times to the moment prior to a pitcher’s release.
In the pitch above, you can see Perdomo freeze as Kelly freezes. Perdomo is about to do his toe tap, but then stops. The moment of the actual toe tap comes late. Here’s a side-by-side to prove it (on the left, a pitch from Perdomo’s prior at-bat against Brusdar Graterol):
Perdomo was in the same place in both frames, but Kelly’s 100 mph fastball was already heading toward the plate. Perdomo was late on his setup before he even had a chance to be late on his swing.
But here’s the thing about Kelly’s shtick: he can’t use it when he’s working with runners on base. It takes a long time for Kelly to deliver a pitch with a hesitation move - some pitches can take 2-2.5 seconds. Anything over ~1.4 seconds provides runners with a head start to a stolen base.
So, when Corbin Carroll reached on a single in the 7th inning, Kelly became a normal pitcher. Some deliveries were quicker than others, but all were in the 1.2-1.4 second range. He became easier to time up.
In that same inning, Kelly disengaged from the rubber twice in the final at-bat (with Carroll on 2nd base and Ketel Marte on 1st). I don’t think these disengagements were intentionally used to try to coax the runners into stealing, but that’s what happened. And with Carroll at 3rd base and nowhere to go, Kelly was free to go back to his hesitation move. Inning over:
Kelly's 38% strikeout rate with the bases empty ranked 10th among pitchers who faced 90 hitters in that situation this year; a statistic that may not come as a surprise. With runners on, he struck out hitters at a slightly lower clip (33%) and walked a few more. If he pitches in Game 3, you’ll probably see him start a clean inning.
4. Trea Turner’s curveball diet
Take a look at the sequence Max Fried used against Trea Turner in his first at-bat on Monday:
0-0 Curveball (called strike - Turner flinches)
0-1 Curveball (tries to check his swing, but can’t)
0-2 Curveball (another flinch. Called a ball, but probably should have been strike three)
1-2 Curveball (foul - Turner way out in front)
1-2 Curveball (ball, bounced)
2-2 Fastball (double)
Five straight curveballs. This is the kind of sequence that tells Turner what the Braves think he has trouble with. It so happens that, for whatever reason, Turner has historically struggled (more than most right-handed hitters) against both left-handed and right-handed curveballs. His batted ball outcomes (slugging percentage, ground ball percentage, etc.) and some swing-related statistics told that story this year.
So, you could argue that the “numbers” support this curveball-heavy approach. Personally, I don’t buy those numbers on their own - I think most same-season differences in raw swing-and-miss or batted ball outcomes aren’t meaningful. Hitters don’t see enough sliders or curveballs in a given season to make those differences predictive. But there’s a “scouting” piece to advance scouting - when there aren’t fully reliable stats available, teams will go to the tape. And Turner has a lot of reactions like this on tape.
Bryce Elder is starting Game 3, and he doesn’t throw a curveball, so this point is moot for him. But if AJ Smith-Shawver gets in today’s game and faces Turner, I think we might see him opt for his curveball over his slider (even though Smith-Shawver’s curveball is his third- or fourth-best pitch, and even though a slider is almost always the better choice for a right-right matchup).
To target Turner with bigger curveballs like Smith-Shawver’s would be to signal that the Braves do actually buy Turner’s small-sample struggles. Advance scouting is messy.
5. Atlanta’s Game 3 starter
The Braves had a decision to make for this one.
Do you start Bryce Elder, who would have this start if it were a regular season series, but who faced the Phillies three weeks ago and struggled?
Do you start AJ Smith-Shawver, a 20-year-old with 25 innings of big league experience?
Or, do you start with the bullpen?
With Elder, many will point to that September 20th outing as cause for concern. He walked five Phillies and gave up two home runs to Nick Castellanos (someone who should be a pretty good matchup for him).
I think that Elder-Philly outing matters, but not because of the box score. It matters because the Phillies have seen him, and they’ve seen him recently. We talk a lot about the times-through-the-order penalty and how familiarity benefits hitters, but we don’t talk as much about that effect over a multi-day or multi-week span. Exposure matters, and I think we’ll see playoff strategies that start to factor in an “exposure effect” soon. It applies to starters (a lineup improves when seeing a starter twice in a row) and relievers (a hitter who saw a reliever a day or two ago performs better than if he hadn’t).
So Elder wouldn’t be my first choice. If Smith-Shawver weren’t so green, he might be my pick (Philly hasn’t ever seen him, which is a plus). But because he is green, I’d probably go with option three. A.J. Minter has started a playoff game before, and he matches up well against a lineup that should skew left-handed at the top (Schwarber, Harper). He’s also a credible threat to go out for a second inning if the Phillies tried to counter by moving a left-handed hitter down in the order a bit.
But the Braves will go with Elder and what will likely be a very short leash. And, because I wrote this, I’m sure he’ll cruise and punch out Castellanos a few times.
Enjoy today’s 3-game slate!
I always learn so much from your posts. Thank you!
Smoltz is easily the worst of the "back in my day the right way" broadcasters, yet MLB continues to give him the biggest stage to gripe about the game today.
Joe Pos pointed out that Smoltz was also going on about how Orioles pitching being so great without really looking into it.