Happy last day of extension-signing season and start of the regular season. Thanks to all of you who have signed up recently. My goal for this newsletter is to bring you inside what it’s like to watch games from the advance scouting perspective (mostly because it’s a fun way to watch baseball).
As we get back into game-watching mode this week, I wanted to call out a few recent posts that demonstrate that perspective.
Pitching development in real time
Josiah Gray will go on Saturday for the Nats - I love watching him because I think he’s development personified. To that point, he’s added a cutter over the offseason and has used it to open up sections of the zone that he couldn’t get to with his fastball last year.
The first post I wrote for this newsletter is less about Gray than it is about a framework for watching a starting pitcher figure out “what’s working.” On any given day, that could include any major league starting pitcher - but in tomorrow’s Opening Day group of starters, I have names like Hunter Greene, Mitch Keller, and Kyle Muller in mind. If you missed this post the first time around, it was probably my favorite one to write thus far.
A Red Sox lineup full of grinders
Justin Turner appears to be hard at work at shifting the approaches of the entire Red Sox lineup. Turner is part hitter, part offensive coordinator. Here’s what he wants to accomplish:
“That’s kind of the culture we need to create: make the other team work hard with 27 outs,” Turner said. “I think getting a starting pitcher out of the game by the fifth inning should be a goal every single night so we can get into those 11th, 12th, 13th guys on the roster coming in to pitch innings in the sixth or seventh. I think that’s how you win a lot of baseball games.”
This jaunt through a couple of Turner gameplanning wins from 2022 is my attempt to break down how a hitter forms a pitcher-specific approach. Turner does this better than anyone I’ve seen. His stubbornness at the plate makes him fun to watch, and it might also make the Red Sox lineup more fun to watch.
Seams on display tomorrow
And lastly, for those who missed it last week: we’ll have a bunch of “seam-shifted wake” changeups on display tomorrow (Logan Webb, Kyle Gibson, Pablo López, Zac Gallen, to name a few). In last week’s post, I broke down what that pitch is and how big it might become this season. As we watch umpires inspect fingers and hands like they’ve never inspected before, keep an eye out for more of these changeups.
Logan Webb’s has been looking pretty good:
Have a great week!
It’s really encouraging to hear how high you are on Josiah Gray! 📈
I want to complement you on your in depth analysis, its very insightful. I've found it extremely difficult to find this type of baseball writing on substack or anywhere else. I look forward to your next offering🙂👍⚾️