It’s possible to get Shohei Ohtani out

Scherzer shows us a way

Shohei Ohtani is a high-ball hitter:

He is also a low-ball hitter:

He covers the outer-third of the plate, too:

So, how do you get him out? That’s a tough one. When a hitter approaches Ohtani’s level, advance scouts will sometimes avoid answering the question by filling their reports with intentionally vague phrases that take up space but say nothing. Here’s a common line you might find in reports on a hitter like Ohtani: “you can’t get him out the same way every time.” Well, that’s fine, but what’s one way to get him out?

On Monday night, Max Scherzer showed us a way.

Believe it or not, prior to Monday night, Max Scherzer had never faced Shohei Ohtani. Monday’s start provided Scherzer a chance to help his new club get one step closer to a division title, but it also gave him a chance to prove that he’s better than the player people have started to call the GOAT.

Phase 1

Scherzer opened with one of the hardest fastballs he’d thrown all year - 95.7 mph off the outer edge. Strike 1:

I know, I know. It’s not a strike. But Scherzer gets this call a little more often than most because he hits his targets, and because he’s a future Hall-of-Famer. If you’re not Scherzer, you may not get that call. But your approach can still remain the same: open with a fastball that is far enough away from Ohtani that he can’t do a lot with it.

Phase 1 is a teaser. A taste of what’s not to come. You communicate that you’re not afraid to throw a fastball near the hitting zone; you might even miss over the plate with one. That teaser is enough to get Ohtani leaning and excited. Just in time for Phase 2.

Phase 2

Now it’s time to make Ohtani uncomfortable. Scherzer has won the outer edge, and he’s going to protect it by driving Ohtani off the plate:

A lot of pitchers may not have the confidence to execute a fastball target like this one. The common misfire on this target for pitchers is a bit lower than this target, and right over the middle of the plate. That’s not a good place to miss against Ohtani. He has a small hole up and in that doesn’t leave pitchers a lot of margin:

Heatmap shows Contact% against fastballs/cutters (courtesy FanGraphs)

This target tells us that Scherzer would rather miss ‘in’ than over the plate. Scherzer does pull the pitch toward Ohtani, and Ohtani’s reaction tells us that he didn’t really enjoy the experience:

With his next pitch, Scherzer tries to go right back to that spot - this time with a cutter. It crowds Ohtani just enough to get him to foul it off. That’s Phase 2: back Ohtani off the plate with hard stuff to keep him from leaning out over the plate.

Phase 3

At this point, Scherzer has dangled a carrot (an 0-0 heater on the outer edge) and then pulled out a few sticks to brush Ohtani away from that carrot. The final phase of this approach is a mirage. A pitch that looks like the carrot, but isn’t.

For Scherzer, this is an 86 mph changeup. Ohtani is so focused ‘in’ that he can’t stay on it. His hands go toward the pitch, but his body tells a different story. This is a bailout swing:

Ping pong

Ohtani got a piece of that last pitch, but the approach has been established. Dangle a carrot once, then mix hard ‘in’ and soft away. Scherzer went right back ‘in’ with another fastball/cutter combo to get Ohtani swinging:

Another go-around

The second Scherzer-Ohtani matchup mirrors the first. Phase 1:

Again, a ball. But not for Max Scherzer.

Phase 2 is perfectly executed:

Scherzer is on the verge of another Ohtani punchout. (On the mound, future Hall of Famer, in the box, GOAT: it’s one of those classic “should I take a landscape or portrait video” baseball moments):

Scherzer throws a 2-strike changeup (Phase 3) and Ohtani fouls it off with another bailout swing:

After a misfire on his second 2-strike changeup, Scherzer adds a wrinkle to Phase 3: he gets Ohtani bailing on a 76 mph curveball that bounces just behind the plate. Two at-bats, two strikeouts.

3D Chess

The final Scherzer-Ohtani clash of the night is over as soon as it starts. Scherzer, having opened the first two at-bats with fastballs off the outside edge, jumps straight to Phase 3 with his first pitch:

This is probably the coolest use of a first pitch changeup that I’ve seen. Ohtani is onto Scherzer’s sequence and clearly ready to ambush a fastball. Scherzer knows what Ohtani is capable of, so he jumps two steps ahead.

In his postgame press huddle following this start, Scherzer said all the right things. That his 7-inning, 11-strikeout, shutout performance was a team win. That his best accomplishment of the night was lasting 7 innings and allowing the Rangers bullpen to take a breather.

Scherzer would “enjoy it, have a couple beers tonight, but [be] back at it tomorrow.” He didn’t mention Ohtani once.

Let’s imagine, though, that the discussion over one of those beers turned to Scherzer’s real victory: reminding us all that he’s capable of outsmarting and out-executing the GOAT.