My new favorite newsletter. Thanks for scratching a unique baseball itch, Noah.
When you note Vazquez' reluctance (refusal?) to swing at first pitch curves in the zone - how sticky is an insight like that? Has that followed him his whole career? Is that part of a broader approach (first pitch passivity)? Very curious for any additional insight there!
Good question. A short answer would be: sticky-ish. On the extreme ends, most hitters hold whatever you're seeing (extreme passivity or extreme aggressiveness). But the better way to suss out something stickier is to model this rate and to use data from multiple seasons.
A long answer would require an entire post. This question is exactly the kind of thing an advance scouting staff needs to work through. When the data is sparse (say, 22 swings for Vazquez), you should work in both scouting- and research-informed opinions. This is the "not fun" aspect of an advance scout's job - you need to put a recommendation forward whether or not you have a lot of hard data.
My new favorite newsletter. Thanks for scratching a unique baseball itch, Noah.
When you note Vazquez' reluctance (refusal?) to swing at first pitch curves in the zone - how sticky is an insight like that? Has that followed him his whole career? Is that part of a broader approach (first pitch passivity)? Very curious for any additional insight there!
Good question. A short answer would be: sticky-ish. On the extreme ends, most hitters hold whatever you're seeing (extreme passivity or extreme aggressiveness). But the better way to suss out something stickier is to model this rate and to use data from multiple seasons.
A long answer would require an entire post. This question is exactly the kind of thing an advance scouting staff needs to work through. When the data is sparse (say, 22 swings for Vazquez), you should work in both scouting- and research-informed opinions. This is the "not fun" aspect of an advance scout's job - you need to put a recommendation forward whether or not you have a lot of hard data.